Quote from: poutnikl on January 20, 2021, 11:52:28QuoteIt makes still sense to provide ETA, if you provide also information, what you can and should expect and the range of applicability. Applying it in extreme circumstances and expecting standard behaviour would be rather an extreme than standard state of mind.I agree.QuoteI remember it was also discussed, not sure if implemented, that the "nominal" ETA, calculated at route planning, would be in real time updated by comparison of partial values of nominal versus real time for the passed part of the route. (whole or last x km/minutes ).Yes, locus adapts the ETA based on the pace held in the previous period and the path still to be covered. But of course this is not the context of the planner.QuoteE.g. a route has estimated ETA in 100 minutes. After passing the first half ( by expected spent time ), i.e. with the nominal ETA 50 minutes, you realize you have spent 55 minutes, i.e. 5 minutes more. So for the rest nominal 50 minutes, you should expect rather 50*55/50=55 minutes as well. Or, it could be evaluated for the last nominal 10 minutes, instead of the whole 50 minutes. So 50*11/10=55 min.Not necessarily, you have to consider the type of path you have already taken and what remains to be done. If in the first 55 minutes you did the flat part, on easy terrain and then you still have 1000 meters of altitude difference left on a bumpy path? Not everyone is able to make this type of assessment, it takes experience and knowledge of their skills that are lacking in those who rely more on technological tools.
Furthermore, I have not seen the fatigue in the formulas that calculate the ETA. If on journeys within 3 hours it may not even be taken into consideration, beyond a certain threshold is instead decisive. If we take an example similar to yours, a 6-hour ride estimated by the ETA: if after 3 hours and 30 minutes I am halfway (with the same track between the first and the second part) it will not take a total of 7 hours, but maybe 8 due to performance degradation due to fatigue. In addition, the longer the routes are, the easier it is for the difference between real time and ETA to become large, also entailing the risk for those who are out to find themselves still far from their destination and with the sun setting down.